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Solar Lease vs Buy Calculator (Canada)

Free Canadian solar lease vs buy calculator. Compare cash, financed (Greener Homes Loan), and PPA structures over 25 years using current 2026 federal grant + provincial rebates and provincial utility rate data.

Solar Lease vs Buy Calculator

Cash purchase — 25-year net
$24,926
Loan purchase — 25-year net
$17,630
PPA — 25-year net
$7,436
Verdict
Cash purchase wins by $7,296

How to use this calculator

Enter your gross system cost (CAD), year-1 monthly bill savings, federal+provincial rebate as a percentage of gross, and the financing parameters. The Greener Homes Loan default is 5.99% APR / 10 years (set to 0% if eligible for the federal interest-free version). The calculator returns your 25-year net position for cash, financed, and PPA — and highlights the winner.

The math accounts for federal/provincial rebates (claimed only by the owner), provincial rate escalation (default 3.0%/yr — varies wildly by province), 0.5% annual O&M, and a 7%-of-system-cost inverter replacement at year 12.

How the math works

Three side-by-side 25-year cash flow models:

Cash purchase

net = -systemCost + rebate + Σ(yr 1..25) annualSavings × (1 + esc)^(y-1)
      − O&M − inverter

Loan purchase (Greener Homes Loan or HELOC)

monthly = P × r / (1 − (1+r)^-n)
net = -totalLoanPaid + rebate + Σ savings − O&M − inverter

PPA (Alberta / Ontario only realistically)

net = Σ savings − Σ leasePayment × (1 + leaseEsc)^(y-1)

Worked example for the en-ca defaults ($22,000 system, 22% rebate = $4,840, $106/mo savings, 5.99% / 10-yr loan, $95/mo PPA at 2.5% escalator, 3.0% rate escalator, 25-yr horizon):

  • Cumulative bill savings (3.0%/yr escalation): $1,272 × ((1.03²⁵ − 1) / 0.03) ≈ $46,378
  • Cash net: −$22,000 + $4,840 + $46,378 − $2,750 O&M − $1,540 inverter = +$24,928
  • Loan total paid: $244.10 × 120 = $29,292; net = −$29,292 + $4,840 + $46,378 − $2,750 − $1,540 = +$17,636
  • PPA cumulative payments (2.5% escalator over 25 yrs): $1,140 × 34.16 ≈ $38,943; PPA net = $46,378 − $38,943 = +$7,435

Cash beats PPA by ~$17,500 over 25 years. With the 0% Greener Homes Loan (in place of the 5.99% commercial loan), the financed structure beats PPA by ~$15,000.

Province-by-province lease vs buy verdict (2026)

ProvinceAvg retail $/kWhCash paybackLoan via Greener HomesPPA available?
Ontario$0.13 (off-peak) – $0.18 (on-peak)12-15 yrsStrong choiceLimited
Quebec$0.07818-22 yrsMarginalNo (regulated monopoly)
British Columbia$0.097 (Step 1) – $0.146 (Step 2)14-18 yrsStrong choiceNo (BC Hydro monopoly)
Alberta$0.10-$0.18 (deregulated)9-13 yrsStrong choiceYes (active market)
Saskatchewan$0.1610-13 yrsStrong choiceNo
Manitoba$0.09716-20 yrsMarginalNo
Nova Scotia$0.169-12 yrsStrong choice (+ SolarHomes)No
New Brunswick$0.1311-14 yrsStrong choice (+ Total Home Energy Savings Program)No
PEI$0.169-12 yrsStrong choice (+ Switch programme)No
Newfoundland$0.1312-15 yrsMarginal (Holyrood thermal still cheap)No
Yukon / NWT$0.15-$0.406-12 yrsStrong choice (+ NWT Arctic Energy Alliance rebates)No

Why Canadian leases lose

Three structural reasons:

  1. Greener Homes Loan at 0% APR removes the financing-cost advantage of leases. Why pay a third party an escalating monthly fee when the federal government will lend you the money interest-free?
  2. Provincial rebates (Alberta, Nova Scotia, PEI, Yukon, NWT) flow to the owner. Lessees see no direct benefit.
  3. Net metering at 1:1 retail credit (most provinces — BC Hydro, Hydro-Québec, Ontario IESO, Manitoba Hydro, NB Power, NS Power, etc.) means the homeowner captures full retail value of exports. Lessees forfeit this.

Lease vs buy: side-by-side reality

FactorCashLoan (5.99%)Greener Homes Loan (0%)PPA
Up-front cost$22,000$0$0$0
Monthly cash flow year 1+$106-$138-$77+$11
25-year net+$24,928+$17,636+$22,476+$7,435
Federal rebateOwnerOwnerOwnerOperator
Provincial rebateOwnerOwnerOwnerOperator
Equity in system100%100% after loan100% after loan0%
Annual escalatorNoneNoneNone2.5-3.5% per year

Pair this with the solar loan calculator, payback calculator, and ROI calculator

For Canadian homeowners, the practical question is “Greener Homes Loan or pay cash?” — leasing is rarely the right answer outside Alberta. Run the loan calculator at 0% APR to model the federal program, the payback calculator for province-specific break-even, and the ROI calculator for 25-year IRR (typically 4-12% in Canada — provincially dependent).

Sources

Frequently asked questions

Are solar PPAs available in Canada in 2026?
Limited and provincial. Solar PPAs exist in Alberta (where deregulated retail allows third-party power sales — Solar Power Investments, Skyfire Energy offer them), and on a small scale in Ontario through community-bonds models. They are essentially absent in Quebec (Hydro-Québec monopoly), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, BC outside Fortis territory, and Atlantic Canada. The dominant model nationwide is owner-financed via the Canada Greener Homes Loan (interest-free, $40,000 cap) plus provincial top-ups like Alberta's Residential and Commercial Solar Program or Nova Scotia's SolarHomes.
Should I buy or lease solar in Canada?
Buy. Canada's economics overwhelmingly favour ownership because of the federal Greener Homes Loan: $40,000 interest-free over 10 years, repayable in installments. A homeowner can finance the full system at 0% interest while still claiming any provincial rebate (Alberta, Nova Scotia, PEI, Yukon, NWT all have stackable programs). The Greener Homes Grant up to $5,000 was paused in 2024 for new applicants but the loan continues. PPAs cannot match interest-free financing — over 25 years, owner-financed wins by CAD $20,000-$45,000 depending on province.
How does the Greener Homes Loan affect the lease vs buy math?
Decisively. At 0% APR over 10 years on $22,000 financed, monthly payment is $183 — versus a typical $250-$350/mo PPA payment for the same system size in Alberta. Year-1 net cash flow with the Greener Homes Loan: bill savings $106 - loan payment $183 = -$77/mo. Year-1 PPA: bill savings $106 - PPA $95 = +$11/mo. PPA wins on cash flow, ownership wins decisively on 25-year position. Once the loan is repaid in year 10, the homeowner has 15 years of free electricity vs the lessee who continues paying.
What about Quebec — Hydro-Québec rates are so low, does solar even work?
Marginal economics in Quebec. At $0.078/kWh residential rates (the lowest in North America), payback for a $20,000 cash purchase stretches to 18-22 years. PPAs are not licensed in Quebec — Hydro-Québec is a regulated monopoly. The only viable structure is owner-financed via the Greener Homes Loan plus the Quebec Rénoclimat program. Most Quebec homeowners do NOT install solar in 2026 and that's the financially correct answer for current rates. Watch for rate hikes (Régie de l'énergie 2025 ruling permitted 3.3% increase) which improve economics over time.
Is Greener Homes Loan interest tax-deductible?
No — personal residential loan interest is not deductible in Canada except for income-producing properties. The Greener Homes Loan is structured as 0% APR, so this is moot. If you finance through a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) at 7-9% prime+, that interest is also not deductible for personal-use solar. Commercial / income-property solar can claim Capital Cost Allowance Class 43.1 (50% accelerated, declining balance) — talk to your accountant if you have rental properties.

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